Twilight Dispatch: News Snapshot #2
The beginnings of Israel's assault on Rafah, RFK Jr.'s brain worms, and a looming SF Nurses' strike feature this week
Global Events
Israel intensified their genocidal assault on Gaza this week as the IDF made its first moves into Rafah. Beginning with the seizure of the southern border checkpoints last Monday (6 May), IDF forces have advanced into eastern Rafah in a “precise operation” that some analysts have suggested is being calculated to minimize American backlash. At least three Israeli brigades are currently engaged in the area, representing an on-paper strength of at least 10,000 soldiers. Rafah, whose population has swelled sixfold with refugees since the invasion of Gaza began, was sheltering over 600,000 sick and malnourished children at last count. International observers have estimated that Israel’s most recent offensive has sent at least 300,000 Palestinians fleeing north toward an uncertain fate in Israel’s “humanitarian zone.” The IAF also launched heavy airstrikes against Jabaila in northern Gaza last Friday (10 May) that are believed to have killed several dozen civilians in the nearby refugee camp. IDF ground forces returned to the area in force the following day. This return of ground forces to northern Gaza for “re-clearing operations” illustrates the dramatic failure of Israel’s efforts in Gaza. Despite the sheer ferocity of Israel’s effort to punish the people of Gaza, Hamas and other militant groups continue to resist the IDF’s assault. Meanwhile, with no end to the war in sight the increasingly desperate families of Israeli hostages have begun to block bridges and highways in protest, calling for a ceasefire and for the return of their family members. This domestic pressure adds to increasing foreign pressure from the United States, where even the arch-Zionist President Biden has protested Israel’s invasion of Rafah and recently refused to authorize the transfer of thousands of bombs and shells that are key to Israel’s ongoing offensives. In a CNN interview last Friday, Biden even told reporters that “If [Israel] goes into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons.” When facing such political pressure at home and abroad as well as the manifest failure of their military goals, most Prime Ministers would give up. Binyamin Netanyahu, however, is no such leader. In response to Biden’s decision, the Israeli PM told American news that “Israel would fight with just (their) fingernails” if they had to. With Israel’s war cabinet voting to expand the Rafah operation and the fascist flank of Netanyahu’s coalition continuing to sabotage ceasefire negotiations, it seems likely that the IDF will muddle on with or without American approval.
India entered week four of its seven-week-long general election today, launching a new round of voting that will primarily feature the Southeastern states of Telangana, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh. Low turnout in the three previous weeks of the election has raised concerns among senior BJP leaders that they may suffer serious electoral losses to the INDIA coalition, which has united most of the country’s smaller left-wing and center-left parties into an electoral alliance against the Hindutva fascism of the BJP and its offshoots. Leading the INDIA coalition is the legendary Indian National Congress, formerly the party of Mohandas Gandhi and the one which ran India in its early years. The states voting this week — a mix of underdeveloped agricultural regions and high-tech urban areas — are ones where the BJP has historically been very weak. The poor, rural states of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh are dominated by independent, secular regionalist parties, while Telangana’s upwardly mobile urban professionals overwhelmingly vote either for the Congress or for the independent regional party Bharat Rashtra Samithi. It is, therefore, not all that likely that their votes will prove decisive unless the INDIA coalition manages to break through the regional party wall, something that thus far they have only managed to do in Telangana province. The election results will not be certified until June 4th, but even if the BJP underperforms it is extremely doubtful that they will lose their majority in the Lok Sabha. The BJP continues to enjoy a lock on the large, populous Indian states in India’s north (such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar). These states — defined by deep poverty (Bihar’s GDP per capita is $750), strong Hindu identity, and high population — are the ones which will define the election.
The Islamist insurgency in Mozambique has continued to expand as the South African Defense Forces prepare to withdraw their peacekeeping force in July. Mozambique has been struggling with Islamist-driven violence since 2015 as a result of lingering poverty and inequality in the country’s northern regions. Over 100 insurgents linked to ISIS attacked the strategic town of Macomia — located in the gas-rich Cabo Delgado province and where SADF peacekeepers have been based since 2021 — last Friday. This marks the boldest raid against international peacekeepers from the African Union since the arrival of the SADF three years ago and may pose a threat to efforts by the Mozambican government to encourage energy development in the region, especially development sponsored by the French concern TotalEnergies. The insurgents were previously thought to have been seriously weakened by the presence of a multinational fighting force which included Rwandan, South African and Botswanan peacekeepers.
The Rapid Support Forces — one of the two main factions in Sudan’s ongoing civil war — have been formally accused of carrying out a genocide against the Masalit people in the war-torn Darfur province. The RSF, which formed out of the infamously brutal Janjaweed militias in the 2010s, recently seized El Geneina, the provincial capital of West Darfur. The city, whose former population of internally displaced persons from previous conflicts in the region has again been displaced by the recent war, remains home to almost 200,000 people. Human Rights Watch alleges that 15,000 Masalit people were slaughtered by the RSF in Geneina and its suburbs, with RSF forces proclaiming to refugees that they were going to take the land and “clean” it so that it could become “the land of the Arabs.” These genocidal attacks have displaced almost 600,000 people from non-Arab ethnic groups like the Masalit, who are now taking refuge in Chadian refugee camps.
Russian forces launched a new offensive in northern Ukraine last Friday, pushing toward the key northeastern city of Kharkov. This marks the first major land engagement in northeastern Ukraine west of the Donets River since September 2022, when a Ukrainian counteroffensive evicted Russia from the area around Kharkov. This new northerly offensive comes on the heels of American approval for a new aid package which will send $61 billion worth of arms and munitions to the battered Ukrainian military. American military aid to Ukraine collapsed during 2023 as further aid packages were obstructed by an intransigent segment of the Republican party, forcing the Ukrainian army to literally ration artillery shells to avoid depleting their munition stocks. Such an aid package will help replenish those stocks but is not likely to arrive within the next few months. At this time, the full scope and goals of Russia’s offensive are not clear. American OSINT analytical group Institute for the Study of War reported that the offensive consisted only of 30-35,000 of the total 50-75,000 soldiers who were likely planned to take part. Such force will not be sufficient to retake Kharkov without additional force commitments, if indeed that is the Russian goal. ISW suggested that the goal may be to spread Ukrainian forces thin and to put Russian artillery guns within range of Kharkov once more, which could put additional pressure on the embattled Ukrainian regime to capitulate. Analysts have also suggested that the goal of this offensive may be to demonstrate that Russia is not deterred from continuing the war by further American aid. This viewpoint is strengthened by Russian president Vladimir Putin’s recent shakeup of senior government positions, which included the replacement of longtime Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belusov, an economist and advisor to Putin who is likely intended to rationalize Russian defense production and rein in the MoD’s worst impulses.
US News
A Black active-duty airman was murdered in his home by Florida police last Wednesday after they forced their way into his off-base apartment. The 23-year-old Senior Airman Roger Fortson had heard some banging on his door late at night and grabbed his sidearm in case he had to defend himself from intruders, which he was carrying when deputies of the Okaloosa County Sheriff’s Department burst through his door and immediately gunned him down. The local Sheriff’s Department has been extremely vague about the circumstances leading up to the shooting, but multiple observers including a woman on a FaceTime call with Fortson at the time have speculated that the deputies had the wrong address. For his part, Okaloosa County Sheriff Eric Aden has claimed that the deputies were responding to a “disturbance” in the area and that the deputy opened fire upon “encountering an armed man.” The deputy responsible for murdering SrA Fortson has allegedly been placed on administrative leave pending an investigation by the state. The Sheriff’s Office has thus far refused to disclose any information about this deputy until the investigation has been concluded.
The Biden administration recently moved to reschedule Marijuana at the federal level. The drug, which is currently fully illegal in only 11 of the 50 states, falls under federal drug regulations as a “Schedule I substance.” This is the most severe drug restriction, which harshly criminalizes usage and trafficking of the designated substance, and which severely restricts clinical trials researching it. This is because, legally speaking, Schedule I substances are believed to have no medical benefits (heroin and quaaludes are Schedule I substances, for example). Current moves by the Biden administration and the Drug Enforcement Agency have been to reclassify Marijuana as a Schedule III substance, which would put Marijuana under the same regulations as substances like Ketamine and anabolic steroids: i.e. legal but controlled. It would also permit federal money to go toward researching marijuana and as loans for legal marijuana businesses while reducing their tax burdens, the latter of which could prove to be a boon to the legal weed business. A number of commentors have pointed out that this belated decision may be an effort by the Biden administration to prop up flagging polling numbers among young voters, who severely disapprove of the Biden administration and particularly its handling of the current Gaza crisis.
Internal dissent in the Democratic Party over Israel continued to intensify this week as mainstream democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) chastised former Secretary of State and failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton over her statements regarding pro-Palestinian protests yesterday. Clinton, who asserted that young people were only protesting because they “don’t know very much at all about the history of the Middle East” last Thursday, has taken her place among the ranks of a dwindling group of diehard pro-Israel Democrats. In an interview on CBS news, Van Hollen said that “Secretary Clinton’s comments… were quite dismissive of students’ concerns about the awful humanitarian crisis… in Gaza.” This sort of public dispute over Israel was once unthinkable among the firmly pro-Israel Democratic party, but with Democratic voters increasingly angry and alienated by the US’s unequivocal support for Israel an increasing number of Democratic politicians are moving to meet them where they are. Longtime Israel supporter and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, for example, made headlines after publicly attacking Netanyahu in March and calling for his replacement as well as in backing Biden’s holdup of munitions to Israel last week, a decision that earned him the nickname “Keffiyeh Chuckie” and accusations of treason against the Jewish community by rabid Zionist protestors.
Depositions from the divorce proceedings of Independent presidential candidate RFK Jr. that were leaked to the media have revealed that the candidate claimed a worm ate part of his brain and then died. The candidate, who is currently on the ballot in 6 states (although this number may increase in the future), is well-known for promoting anti-vaccine and COVID-19 conspiracy theories. Doctors have speculated that the parasite identified by his doctors may have been a pork tapeworm larva, but also questioned the connection between the worm and the candidate’s stated memory issues. They have suggested that a more likely culprit for RFK Jr.’s reported symptoms would be brain damage from the mercury poisoning he suffered in the 2010s, allegedly as a result of consuming enormous amounts of fish. These revelations, which stem from the candidate’s arguments in his 2012 divorce proceedings that these cognitive issues limited his future income to be considered in alimony payments, come at a time when the RFK Jr. campaign is emphasizing his supposed health and vigor relative to his mainstream competitors. Demonstrating a true mastery of public relations, the candidate responded to this image crisis by claiming that he would “eat 5 more brain worms and still beat President Trump and President Biden in a debate.”
San Francisco News
The United Educators of San Francisco — the union representing SFUSD’s 6500 educators and paraprofessionals — released their dual endorsement of progressive D-3 supervisor Aaron Peskin and largely unknown D-11 supervisor Ahsha Safai for mayor this week. Historically, the UESF endorsement has been a strong one in SF politics, but like many progressive organizations the Union and its PAC took a beating during the 5 March primary elections, which may affect the strength of their endorsements. San Francisco’s ranked choice voting system means that this dual endorsement will not really muddy the waters, but it is unlikely that either candidate is pleased to be sharing it. With the moderate lane of the mayoral election crowded by current incumbent London Breed, millionaire dilettante Daniel Lurie, and “common-sense” conservative Mark Farrell (truly a modern Hindenburg), both candidates will need to build a strong identity for themselves to organize the progressive vote if they hope to triumph.
San Francisco nurses may be going on strike after contract negotiations reportedly stalled last week. SEIU Local 1021, the union which may be launching the strike, represents the roughly 2300 nurses employed by SF’s Department of Public Health. They announced last Thursday that the strike authorization vote will be held from this Tuesday to Friday. This vote occurs as the contract between the city and the union is up for renewal this June, and the city’s nurses are deeply dissatisfied with the way they’re being treated. As they have been with municipal workers citywide, the city’s negotiating team has reportedly been acting in extremely bad faith and refusing to address the union’s concerns. SFUSD narrowly avoided a similar strike last October after their bad-faith negotiation tactics provoked 97% of UESF’s membership to vote to strike, a show of strength which sent the negotiating team scurrying to cut a new deal with the union. SEIU’s grievances center around the systemic mismanagement of SFDPH in the city’s hospitals (which resulted in a city hospital losing its federal certification in 2022) and chronic understaffing caused by the city’s efforts to replace full-time registered nurses with part-time workers after the pandemic.
Courtesy of the Transbay Joint Powers Authority The Federal government pledged $3.4 billion to the effort to connect the planned California high-speed rail program and existing Caltrain commuter rail to San Francisco’s downtown on Saturday. The planned Caltrain expansion will lengthen existing rail lines by 1.8 miles — a process which will involve digging a 1.3-mile-long underground tunnel — and connect it to the Salesforce Transit Center, where in the future it will connect with SFMTA’s Municipal Railway (MUNI) and the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) railway. This ambitious transit project, which is also receiving financial support from the state of California and the Transbay Joint Powers Authority, is estimated to be completed sometime in 2032-33.
Midyear City budget cuts of as much as 15% have been ordered by Mayor Breed, who made the initial announcement last December and confirmed that at least 10% of the city’s budget will be cut by 1 June. These cuts are being justified by the city’s infamous looming budget crisis, which stems from the collapse of sales tax and property tax revenue after the COVID-19 pandemic. Mayor Breed also confirmed that she intends to follow in the footsteps of the past few years of budget cuts, which involved funneling money from cut social services to the San Francisco police department. In the 2023 budget, for instance, Mayor Breed cut over $400 million in social services (including $50 million from SF’s embattled public school system) while expanding the SFPD budget by $80 million. While some observers have concluded with great relief that San Francisco has avoided the worst of the feared “doom loop,” they still note that the city’s economic recovery has been muted. Mayor Breed’s efforts to look “tough on crime” with elections looming and city “moderates” constantly obsessing over a largely imaginary crime wave may yield some short-term political benefits but are unlikely to assist in the city’s slow recovery.